IMF held a press conference to release the July World Economic Outlook Update titled Global Economy in the Cross Currents of War and Technology. Two opposing forces dominate global growth: Middle East war-driven energy shocks and AI-fueled investment booms. The IMF forecasts 3% global growth in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, forming a V-shaped recovery. Global headline inflation is lifted to 4.7% in 2026, halting the disinflation trend since early 2024. The baseline assumes the Strait of Hormuz fully resumes normal trade by March 2027 with an average oil price of $89 per barrel in 2026. Downside risks prevail: renewed regional conflict and AI market corrections, while faster AI adoption and smoother shipping recovery serve as upside factors. Policy suggestions include central banks prioritizing price stability, phasing out energy fiscal subsidies and advancing structural reforms. Economic performance varies sharply by region. MENA suffers a drastic growth slump in 2026 but rebounds strongly in 2027. AI-integrated economies like South Korea and China get growth upgrades; energy importers without tech chain participation face headwinds. India, Argentina, Brazil maintain solid growth, while Europe and Mexico see weaker expansions. Facing high geopolitical uncertainty, IMF officials note central banks need to reconsider forward guidance tools. They will closely monitor short, medium and long-term inflation expectations and adjust forecasts amid evolving conflicts. Only economies listed on Page 14 of the report were covered during the Q&A.
